(2022) “The four global worlds of welfare capitalism: Institutional, neoliberal, populist and residual welfare state regimes” Journal of European Social Policy (with Erdem Yoruk and Gabrieal Tafoya)
What welfare state regimes are observed when the analysis is extended globally, empirically and theoretically? We introduce a novel perspective into the ‘welfare state regimes analyses’ – a perspective that brings developed and developing countries together and, as such, broadens the geographical, empirical and the- oretical scope of the ‘welfare modelling business’. The expanding welfare regimes literature has suffered from several drawbacks: (i) it is radically slanted towards organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD) countries, (ii) the literature on non-OECD countries does not use genuine welfare policy variables and (iii) social assistance and healthcare programmes are not utilized as components of welfare state effort and generosity. To overcome these limitations, we employ advanced data reduction methods, exploit an original dataset (https://glow.ku.edu.tr/) that we assembled from several international and domestic sources covering 52 emerging markets and OECD countries and present a welfare state regime structure as of the mid-2010s. Our analysis is based on genuine welfare policy variables that are theorized to capture welfare generosity and welfare efforts across five major policy domains: old-age pensions, sickness cash benefits, unemployment insurance, social assistance and healthcare. The sample of OECD countries and emerging market economies form four distinct welfare state regime clusters: institutional, neoliberal, populist and residual. We unveil the composition and performance of welfare state components in each welfare state regime family and develop politics-based working hypotheses about the formation of these regimes. In- stitutional welfare state regimes perform high in social security, healthcare and social assistance, while populist regimes perform moderately in social assistance and healthcare and moderate-to-high in social security. The neoliberal regime performs moderately in social assistance and healthcare, and it performs low in social security, and the residual regime performs low in all components. We then hypothesize that the relative political strengths of formal and informal working classes are key factors that shaped these welfare state regime typologies.
Published Version(2019) “Indigenous Unrest and the Contentious Politics of Social Assistance in Mexico.” World Development (with Erdem Yoruk and Lara Sarlak)
Is social assistance being used to contain ethnic and racial unrest in developing countries? There is a growing literature on social assistance policies in the Global South, but this literature largely focuses on economic and demographic factors, underestimating the importance of contentious politics. The case of Mexico shows that social assistance programs are disproportionately directed to indigenous popula- tions, leading to diminished protest participation. Drawing on data from the 2010, 2012 and 2014 rounds of the Latin American Public Opinion Project, we apply multivariate regression analysis to examine the determinants of social assistance program participation in Mexico. Our study finds that after controlling for income, household size, age, education, and employment status, indigenous ethnic identity is a key determinant in who benefits from social assistance in Mexico. Our results show that high ethnic disparity in social assistance is not only due to higher poverty rates among the indigenous population. Rather, indigenous people receive more social assistance mainly because of their ethnic identity. In addition, this study demonstrates that indigenous people who benefit from social assistance programs are less likely to join anti-government protests. We argue that this ethnic targeting in social assistance is a result of the fact that indigenous unrest has become a political threat for Mexican governments since the 1990s. These results yield substantive support in arguing that the Mexican government uses social assistance to contain indigenous unrest. The existing literature, which is dominated by structuralist explanations, needs to strongly consider the contentious political drivers of social assistance provision in the Global South for a full grasp of the phenomenon. Social assistance in Mexico is driven by social unrest and this suggests that similar ethnic, racial, religious and contentious political factors should be examined in other developing countries to understand social assistance provisions.
Published Version(2019) "The Variable Selection Problem in the Three Worlds of Welfare Literature”, Social Indicators Research (with Erdem Yoruk, Kerem Yildirim, and Burcu Yakut-Cakar)
Based on a quantitative meta-analysis of empirical studies, this article points out a significant flaw in the Three Worlds of Welfare literature, the “variable selection problem.” Compiling, classifying, and quantitatively analysing all variables that have been employed in this literature, the article shows first that variable selection has depended more on case selection than on theory. Scholars tend to employ variables based on data availability, rather than selecting variables according to theoretical frameworks. Second, the use of welfare policy variables is mostly limited to the analysis of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, while studies analysing non-OECD countries, where data is limited, tend to use developmental outcome variables as a proxy. This tendency harms conceptualization and operationalization of welfare regimes, as well as blur the boundary between development and welfare regimes studies. Third, the use of original Esping-Andersen variables remains very limited, undermining continuity, comparability, and reliability within the literature.
Published Version(2019) “Fragile transitions from education to employment: Youth, gender and migrant status in the EU”. In E. Colombo (Ed.), Youth and the Politics of the Present: Coping with Complexity and Ambivalence. London: Routledge. (Cetin Celik, Fatos Goksen, Alpay Filiztekin, and Mark Smith)
In this chapter, we map vulnerability in school-to-work (STW) transitions across the EU by the intersectionality of gender and migrant status. Following Anthias (2013), we consider intersectionality as social location such as gender, class, race, sexuality, faith, disability and so on, not an identity, that create constrains, opportunities and strategies. Overall, our results suggest that low-educated migrant women may have fewer options than EU-born women on the labour market and so take up the more limited range of jobs that are available to them given their qualifications, skills and migrant status. The findings also indicate that less-educated EU-born women have higher rates of employment compared to migrant women. Based on our findings, we argue that regimes characterised by an institutionalised VET system and strong counselling support for training and employment such as that found in Denmark tend to perform relatively well in facilitating school-to-work transitions of different vulnerable groups. One of the major strengths of the universal regime seems to lie in its minimal streaming and flexible education, supported by broad second-chance options at local levels, both in education and training. These polices play a major role in integrating vulnerable groups such as low-skilled and minority youth into education and the labour market.
Published VersionThe Historical Origins of Generous Authoritarian Welfare States
Despite prevailing assumptions that autocratic regimes provide limited social welfare, some autocracies are notably generous. Centering on the welfare policies of post-independence sovereign autocratic governments, I argue that the origins of these generous welfare states trace back to their foundational moments. During these critical junctures, the presence of an Integral Mass Party (IMP)—distinguished by leadership coming from humble social origins, pervasive local presence, and a vision for significant societal change—produces generous welfare states in settings with strong state apparatuses. When in power, IMPs harness welfare as a tool for intrusive nation-building, and in opposition, they exert pressure on ruling elites to expand welfare reach. A strong state apparatus aids in designing and implementing these welfare programs. Drawing on three original datasets spanning 95 autocratic regimes, this study shows that this intersection has produced robust authoritarian welfare states that distribute social welfare to broad segments of society and have high-quality social benefits.
The Politics of the Minimum Wage (with Teri Caraway)
Minimum wages increased dramatically in all regions of the Global South
during the first two decades of the 21st century. We argue that two
political logics—electoral and containment—explain both this overall
trend and why some countries have raised the minimum wage more than
others. With electoral logics, tight elections or poor performance in an
election lead governments to approve big raises for workers. With
containment logics, governments increase minimum wages in response
to large-scale working-class mobilization. Either logic on its own can
result in large hikes in the minimum wage, but wage gains are especially
strong when electoral and containment logics intersect. Drawing on two
original cross-national datasets on minimum wages and labor
mobilization, we find strong empirical evidence of both containment and
electoral logics. We also illustrate these logics qualitatively in a set of
thumbnail sketches.
Working Papers
“Distorted Perceptions” of Prosperity: Consumer Credits and AKP Support in Turkey
Show me your phone!”, “Look at the residences surrounding us; everybody has become a homeowner!”, “Everybody claims there is poverty, but notice the abundance of luxury vehicles traversing our streets!” These remarks vividly illustrate the AKP supporters’ primary defense against critiques of diminishing purchasing power throughout the party's reign in Turkey. I posit that the expanded influence of commercial banks during the AKP era has played a crucial role in shaping these “distorted perceptions” among the party’s conservative base about its economic achievements, which, in turn, has reinforced their support for the AKP’s authoritarian trajectory. The volume of credit distributed by commercial banks has increased more than sixfold during the AKP's tenure, with a considerable portion directed towards consumer credit schemes and mortgage plans. By boosting the disposable income of lower- and middle-income groups, these financial instruments have enabled these segments of the population to surpass their traditional consumption levels, thereby diminishing their demand for redistribution—a key mechanism that sustains autocratic leaders in power. Utilizing an original survey, I demonstrate that the endurance of the AKP’s authoritarian rule is significantly influenced by the increased access to consumer credit, which has fostered a “distorted perception” of economic well-being and, consequently, increased support for the autocratizing ruling party.
America’s Minimum Wage in Comparative Perspective (with Teri Caraway)
In comparative terms, the United States is an outlier when it comes to the minimum wage. While countries around the world raise the minimum wage on a regular basis, the U.S. Congress has raised the minimum wage only five times in the last fifty years. Why has the U.S. federal government raised minimum wages so infrequently? We argue that the frequency of minimum wage increases depends on whether legislative approval is necessary, as in the U.S., or if the executive branch determines the minimum wage. In systems like the U.S., where legislative approval is needed, multiple veto points often obstruct policy change. Here, partisanship and polarization also intensify the struggle to pass wage increases. In contrast, executive-controlled systems face no such hurdles, facilitating regular increases. To evaluate our arguments, we use a mixed-method approach. First, we conduct a comparative case study between the U.S. and Poland, showing that despite similar political climates with heightened polarization and shifting governments, these countries have experienced divergent minimum wage trends due to their different institutional settings. The U.S., riddled with multiple veto points, struggles to increase minimum wages. Conversely, Poland’s executive authority over wage determination enables strategic manipulation for electoral gains. Second, we test the generalizability of our argument utilizing a novel dataset on minimum wage policies in 155 countries and reveal that the institution that holds the final authority in minimum wage determination is the most important factor behind the frequency of minimum wage increases.
The Labor Origins of Food Subsidies in the Middle East and North Africa.Manuscript in preparation
Perceptions of Syrian Refugees in TurkeyManuscript in preparation
Correcting Distortions in Latent Measures: A Penalized Regression Approach to Item Response TheoryManuscript in preparation (with Josef Woldense and Matthew Wilson)
Warfare and Welfare: TheManuscript in preparation (With Pedro Accorsi)Butter or GunsModel Revisited
Why Do Military Dictators Spend Less on the Military?Manuscript in preparation (With Pedro Accorsi)